TÜRKİYE MARKETBEAT HALF YEAR 2026

Economic rebalancing is becoming more pronounced as disinflation continues

In the first half of 2026 , the Turkish economy entered a rebalancing phase amid tight monetary policy and weakening domestic demand . The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) kept its policy rate unchanged at 37% in June, considering the risks to the inflation outlook. Inflation remained broadly stable within the 30% to 33% range in the second quarter, while annual CPI inflation declined to 32.1% in June. Despite the slowdown in economic activity, tourism revenues and services exports supported the current account balance, while exchange rate movements and geopolitical developments remained the key risks to the inflation Outlook.

Prime rents have begun an upward trend

As of this quarter, prime rents increased by 13% year over year, reaching US$52/m² per month. Persistently low vacancy rates in the Central Business District (CBD) and the limited supply of prime office space remain the key factors supporting rental stability . In particular, sustained demand for high-quality office buildings with strong transportation links and international-standard specifications has driven prime rents above their previous level.

Evolving consumer preferences are transforming the retail landscape

The retail sector demonstrated resilience during the first half of 2026 despite pressure on consumer purchasing power and elevated operating costs. Limited availability of high-quality space and robust occupancy levels led retailers to prioritize portfolio retention and space optimization over rapid store expansion. At the same time, the growing emphasis on experience-led consumption, social engagement and accessible luxury continued to reshape tenant-mix strategies.

The industrial sector continues to face cost pressures

Turkish industry has faced not only rising production costs, difficulties in accessing finance, and imbalances between exchange rates and inflation in recent years, but also the changing dynamics of global competition . China’s low-cost, high-efficiency production model has intensified pricing pressure across many sectors, weakening the competitiveness of businesses engaged in low-value-added production and unable to achieve technological differentiation.

Recovery in building permit activity provides a positive signal for housing supply

Supply-side indicators also recorded a significant improvement . In the first quarter of 2026, building permits were issued for 231,818 residential units, up 37.0% from the same period of the previous year. Occupancy permits were issued for 162,833 residential units, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.1%. The sharp rise in permitted residential units signals improved developer confidence regarding the outlook for the coming period. At the same time, the continued expansion of the construction pipeline indicates that housing supply could strengthen over the medium term.